Behind the Sharp Rises and Falls: The Debate Over 'Black Swans' and 'Gray Rhinos' in the SHFE Tin Market [SMM Analysis]

Recent SHFE Tin Price Trend Analysis and Key Events——Based on the Dual Themes of Supply-Demand Tug-of-War and Macro Disturbances

1. Price Trend Overview: Sharp Rises and Falls, Considerable Fluctuations

Since April 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) has experienced significant volatility. At the beginning of the month, driven by supply-side disturbances such as the earthquake in Myanmar and the suspension of tin mining in the DRC, prices surged to 299,990 yuan/mt, approaching the 300,000 yuan threshold and hitting a new high for the year. However, with the implementation of the US tariff hike policy on China (effective April 9) and the increasing expectations of the resumption of operations at the Bisie mine in the DRC, market risk aversion surged, leading to a single-day drop of over 9% in the SHFE tin night session, with prices falling to a one-month low of 252,000 yuan/mt. Subsequently, as the US government announced a 90-day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" on certain countries, the intraday decline in SHFE tin narrowed to within 2%, showing an oversold rebound. As of April 10, the most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated weakly within the range of 254,100-266,280 yuan/mt, with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensifying.

2. Core Driving Events

1. Supply Side: Geopolitical Conflicts and Natural Disasters IntertwinedMyanmar Earthquake Delays Wa State Resumption

: The 7.9-magnitude earthquake in Myanmar on March 31 (epicenter about 200 km from the main tin mining area) postponed the resumption meeting of the Manxiang mine in Wa State, exacerbating market concerns about a decline in tin ore transportation from Myanmar.

DRC Bisie Mine "Stops and Restarts": The world's third-largest tin mine, Bisie, suspended operations on March 13 due to armed conflict (annual capacity of 20,000 mt), driving a short-term surge in tin prices; on April 9, Alphamin announced the start of "phased resumption," partially alleviating expectations of tight tin ore supply and quickly squeezing out risk premiums.

Smelting Contraction Intensifies: Domestic tin concentrate TCs fell to historical lows, and some small and medium-sized smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi were forced to cut production due to raw material shortages, with the operating rate of refined tin smelters continuing to decline.

2. Policy Side: Tariff Impact and Macro Sentiment Disturbances"Nuclear-Level" Tariff Escalation on China

April 2: Trump signed an executive order announcing "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese goods, with an initial rate of 34%.

April 8: The US further increased tariffs on Chinese goods from 34% to 84% and eliminated the duty-free policy for small packages under $800.

April 10: Tariffs were raised again to 125%, combined with the previously imposed 20% tariff due to fentanyl issues, bringing the total tariff rate to 145%, a record high.

Geopolitical Risk Premiums Retracted: Negotiations to ease conflicts in the DRC (April 9) and delayed expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut triggered a systemic correction in commodities, highlighting the financial attributes of SHFE tin and accelerating price pullbacks as funds withdrew.

3. Outlook: Waiting for New Drivers Amid Weak Fluctuations

In the short term, SHFE tin is expected to fluctuate within the range of 245,000-269,000 yuan/mt, with key focuses on:

Actual Progress of DRC Resumption: If the phased resumption of Bisie encounters obstacles, prices may rebound to the 265,000 yuan resistance level;

Myanmar Political Situation and Wa State Dynamics: Whether the resumption in mid-May can be realized will determine the sustainability of ore supply tightness.

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